Service 06 · Feasibility & Origination · The Cheapest Decision Is the Kill Decision

Site, queue, off-take. Get all three or move on.

Most projects fail before financial close. Most of those failures were visible at DG1: a queue position three years from energization, an off-take market saturated for the next vintage, land control that isn't actually control, an interconnection cluster requiring a network upgrade the project can't fund. We work with developers and capital partners at the origination phase, where the cheapest decision is the kill decision and the most expensive one is dragging a doomed site through a year of diligence before admitting it.

vs build-everywhere origination

Pipeline volume without filter is a cost, not an asset.

Every site in the pipeline carries land payments, option fees, and overhead. Pipelines that don't kill bad sites quickly become balance sheet liabilities, not strategic assets.

vs broker-led site sourcing

Brokers sell sites with the cleanest data first.

The first sites a broker brings are the ones that screen well on a single dimension. The data quality on the second and third tier is unknown, and the diligence to verify it is on the developer.

vs slow institutional process

Paralysis between desktop and field kills more deals than bad sites do.

A site that takes six months to decide on is a site competitors are already developing. Diligence has to be fast enough to keep up with the market and rigorous enough to defend the kill decision.

vs sponsor-led concentration risk

A pipeline concentrated in one ISO is one regulatory change from worthless.

Concentration in one tariff regime, one off-take market, or one interconnection authority makes the pipeline correlated to a single point of failure. The diversification has to be deliberate, not residual.

Seven workstreams. From market diligence to go/no-go memo.

Each workstream produces an artifact that either advances the project to DG2 or kills it cleanly with a documented record. There is no parking lot.
01
Market and policy diligence

State RPS, ITC eligibility, REC market clearing, off-take pricing trajectory, capacity market structure. The macro file that determines whether any project in this market is buildable, before any site is screened.

You get: market and policy memo, RPS schedule, REC pricing forecast, off-take market depth analysis.
02
Site selection and prescreening

GIS-based screening on slope, environmental flags, land use, transmission proximity. Desktop work that ranks sites quickly and kills the obvious failures before any field cost is spent.

You get: site scorecard, GIS prescreening output, ranked short list with kill reasons documented.
03
Interconnection strategy

Cluster studies, queue position, network upgrade exposure, IA timing. The single most common failure point in early-stage development. Most pipelines have at least one site here that should be killed.

You get: interconnection memo, queue position analysis, network upgrade exposure, IA timeline.
04
Off-take strategy

PPA market depth, merchant exposure, tolling structures, hybrid arrangements. The pricing, tenor, and counterparty diligence that determines whether the pro forma top line is bankable or hopeful.

You get: off-take pathway memo, market clearing benchmark, counterparty diligence framework, hedging options analysis.
05
Land control

Fee simple, lease, option, easement. Chain-of-title diligence. The control structure that determines whether the project is actually yours to develop or whether you have a handshake to be invalidated later.

You get: land control diligence memo, chain-of-title summary, control structure recommendation, financing-fitness assessment.
06
Permitting roadmap

Conditional use permits, environmental review, federal review where applicable (BLM, USFWS, FAA), state and local approvals. Timeline mapped to construction start, with critical path identified.

You get: permitting roadmap, critical path memo, agency engagement plan, timeline risk register.
07
Preliminary economics and go/no-go

Capital cost, energy yield, off-take price, blended cost of capital. Modeled to a defensible IRR with sensitivities. The kill bar is set before the model runs, not after.

You get: preliminary financial model, go/no-go memo, kill bar documentation, handoff package to DG2.

Feasibility decision gates · DG1 sub-flow (parallel to modeling sub-flow)

DG1.A
Market & policy lock
Macro environment validated. RPS, ITC eligibility, off-take depth, REC pricing assessed.
DG1.B
Site control & interconnection
Land controlled at financing-fit standard. Queue position and IA timeline validated.
DG1.C
Off-take pathway
PPA, merchant, or hybrid path identified. Counterparty diligence in flight or complete.
DG1.D
Go/no-go to DG2
Preliminary economics model passes kill bar. Handoff to capital structuring or kill on record.

Four kill conditions. Any one of them ends the project.

Kill 01
Queue beyond bankability

Interconnection queue position more than 36 months from energization, with cluster restudy risk. The energy yield doesn't matter if the project can't get to the grid in time for the off-take vintage.

Test: COD inside off-take counterparty window, with margin.
Kill 02
Network upgrades exceed feasibility

Required network upgrades exceed 25 percent of project capex, or upgrade cost is unfunded under cluster cost-sharing rules. The project is paying to fix the grid for the next developer.

Test: upgrade cost / project capex below sponsor's threshold.
Kill 03
Off-take market thin

PPA market clearing below the pro forma minimum, with no merchant alternative or hedging path. Or counterparty depth is insufficient and the project is forced into a single-bidder negotiation.

Test: market clearing $/MWh above pro forma floor.
Kill 04
Land control unfit for financing

Lease term shorter than financing tenor plus extensions. Title defect, easement gap, or option that converts late in development. Not actually controlled in the way a lender requires.

Test: control structure passes lender's standard form review.

What sits on your desk when we're done.

Either a complete development file ready for handoff to DG2, or a documented kill decision with the specific failure point named. No parking lot, no extended desktop study with no outcome. Origination discipline is fundamentally about saying no faster, not yes louder.

  • Market and policy diligence memo RPS schedule, REC pricing, ITC eligibility, off-take market depth.
  • Site selection scorecard GIS prescreening, ranked short list, kill reasons documented per site.
  • Interconnection strategy memo Queue position, network upgrade exposure, IA timeline, restudy risk.
  • Off-take pathway analysis PPA market depth, counterparty diligence, hedging options, merchant exposure.
  • Land control documentation review Chain-of-title, control structure, financing-fitness assessment.
  • Permitting roadmap CUP, environmental, federal review, critical path, agency engagement plan.
  • Preliminary economics and go/no-go memo Defensible IRR, sensitivities, kill bar documentation, handoff package to DG2.

Have a development pipeline that needs a kill bar?

Initial scoping calls are complimentary. Engagements range from single-site go/no-go diligence through portfolio-wide pipeline triage. Conflict cleared on engagement, fee from the client only.

Start a feasibility scope →